Keywords
roundwood
forestry industry
woodworking industry
extrapolation linear forecasting
war impact заготівля деревини
лісоматеріали круглі
лісогосподарська галузь
деревообробна галузь
екстраполяційне лінійне прогнозування
вплив війни
How to Cite
Abstract
Introduction
The 2022 military aggression against Ukraine harmed the socio-economic conditions in the country and has significantly changed the trends of its development. The negative economic trends in the forestry of Ukraine caused by the military operations are intensifying due to the ongoing reform of the state sector management of the industry starting in 2021 with the merging of state-owned forestry enterprises in the State Specialized Forest Enterprise (SFE) “Forests of Ukraine” with the corresponding centralization of management and economic functions. Along with the difficulties of the transformational period in the Ukrainian forestry industry, there are also economic problems with the mandatory sale of round timber exclusively through electronic stock trading. The study of modern trends in the wood market of Ukraine, as well as the prospects for stabilization and improvement of its functioning, is particularly relevant considering the institutional transformations in the Ukrainian forestry industry in 2021–2023 and war related force majeure circumstances in the country’s economy. Also, in addition to modern positioning, an important economic task in any industry is to determine its future position according to the scenario approach. Extrapolation forecast is one of the methods that helps to establish potential production volumes of certain product types in the future. Therefore, the study aims to investigate the dynamics and structure of roundwood harvesting indicators in Ukraine compared to the pre-war period in 2021 and potentially possible parameters for the further use of the obtained results for scenario forecasting of the domestic wood market.
Materials and Methods
Quantitative methods of statistics, grouping, comparison, tabular and graphic modeling, economic analysis and synthesis, and economic-mathematical methods of extrapolation linear forecasting have been used in the research. Extrapolation linear forecasting was carried out using standard Microsoft Office Excel 2003 software ("LINEST" and "TREND" functions). The input information for the analysis was open information from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (website https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/), SFE “Forests of Ukraine” (website https://e-forest.gov.ua/), State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine (website https://forest.gov.ua/), legislative and regulatory documentation of Ukraine and scientific publications on the research subject.
Results
The negative impact of military operations on the wood market of Ukraine has been established. In 2022 the volume of wood harvesting decreased by 9.7% (or by 1,715.1 thousand m3) and roundwood by 9.5% (or by 1,581.8 thousand m3) compared to the previous year. In 2022, the wood market in Ukraine experienced the largest negative trends due to a decrease in the supply of coniferous wood (by 18.0%, or by 1,768.2 thousand m3). A significant decrease in the volume of roundwood harvesting occurred in 2022 compared to 2021 within three natural zones of Ukraine (except for the Carpathians): by 37.9% in the Steppe, by 11.3% in the Forest-Steppe, and by 9.6% in Polissia. The decisive influence of SFE “Forests of Ukraine” on the volume of wood supply in the domestic market in 2023–2024 was revealed.
An increase in the production of firewood (instead of industrial wood) during felling is foreseen in 2024 by the assortment plan of the SFE “Forests of Ukraine”. This indicates the deterioration of the wood marketability planned for felling and hence the biological stability and health condition of the Ukrainian forests. The stability of the assortment structure of round timber by quality classes for all species groups in the SFE “Forests of Ukraine” during 2023–2024 was established, with relatively higher quality of softwood broadleaved species and relatively worse quality of hardwood species. It was determined that the number of business entities in Ukraine in the wood harvesting industry decreased by 9.3% in 2022, in woodworking industry by 14.0%, in the furniture industry by 12.9%, and in the production of paper pulp, paper and cardboard by 15.1%.
Conclusions
The negative trends of 2022–2024 regarding the wood harvesting and consumption in Ukraine will continue in the next few years due to ongoing military operations. Forecasted by linear extrapolation, the volume of roundwood harvesting exceeds the actual indicators in 2021–2022 by 16.5% and 25.7%, respectively. These volumes are a reserve if the economy would function in conditions “without war”.
8 Figs., 3 Tables, 21 Refs.
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