Keywords
number of fires
fire hazard
fire safety regulations площа лісових пожеж
кількість випадків пожеж
природна пожежна небезпека
правила пожежної безпеки
How to Cite
Abstract
Introduction
In recent decades, the frequency and extent of forest fires have increased globally. Arid climatic conditions and forest degradation caused by biotic and anthropogenic factors contribute significantly to fire risk. The accumulation of forest fuel, due to the drying of branches and parts of tree crowns, further elevates this risk. Ukrainian forests are classified into five natural fire hazard classes, based on forest site type (hygrotope), dominant tree species (coniferous or deciduous), stand age, and other characteristics. These parameters are used to calculate a weighted average fire hazard index for individual forest management units. However, forest fire risk is also influenced by such factors as weather conditions, population density, and stand composition. Incorporating these variables enables the development of regional fire risk forecasts. Considering recent administrative reforms and structural changes in forest governance, there is a need to update and adapt the forest fire zoning system to align with the current structure of the forest sector.
This research aimed to compare the predicted forest fire risk at the administrative regional level with actual fire incidence data recorded at the Forest Office level within the State Specialised Forest Enterprise (SFE) “Forests of Ukraine”.
Materials and Methods
The analysis used official statistical reports from the State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine on fire occurrences and burnt areas across administrative regions, which is subordinate to the State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine, as well as the forest arrangement database as of January 1, 2011. The classification of forests by fire risk within administrative regions, developed by Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest Melioration was considered, including the complex of natural, climatic and socio-economic characteristics of each region.
Fire hazard classes for each Forest Office were calculated as weighted averages of the forest area of each class for individual regions, considering the corresponding total forest area. The average number of fires and the annual burned area were estimated for each year by summing the relevant indicators across administrative regions. The average burned area per fire was calculated by dividing the total burned area by the number of fire events in a given year. Due to ongoing military activities, including shelling and the presence of unexploded ordnance since 2022, it has become difficult to accurately assess fire incidence and affected areas in some regions. Therefore, two time periods were analyzed: 2007–2023 and the pre-war period 2007–2020.
Results and Conclusions
Forest fires are driven by drought, forest fuel accumulation, and forest weakening due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. Considering this, a forest fire zoning system of Ukrainian forests has been developed. The research aimed to compare the predicted fire risk at the regional level and actual data for the forest offices of the SFE “Forests of Ukraine”. It has been found that the fire risk at the level of the SFE “Forests of Ukraine” Offices generally aligns with regional-level forecasts for forest fire incidents and burnt areas. However, inconsistencies were observed in the forecasts for the Southern and Central Forest Offices, which encompass areas with diverse stand compositions that influence fire hazards. The study concludes that refining forest fire zoning at the Forest Office level is essential. The refinement should take into account up-to-date data on the distribution of pine forests, especially in light of recent changes due to clear-cutting, sanitary felling in pests and disease outbreak areas, the expansion of burnt areas, and an increase in unforested lands in occupied territories.
5 Figs., 1 Table, 24 Refs.
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