Current state of forests in Ukraine under the influence of climate change and military aggression

Abstract

Introduction

Forests are globally recognized as vital components of sustainable development and modern climate policy, as reflected in numerous international agreements that Ukraine actively supports. Notably, participants of the most recent Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (2024) endorsed a dedicated paragraph in the Bonn Declaration on Ukraine, calling for enhanced multilateral cooperation and technical support for restoring Ukraine’s forest sector during and after the war. These efforts are supported in part by the scientific contributions of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest Melioration (URIFFM) across a broad range of topics.

This study aims to assess the current state of Ukrainian forests in the context of climate change and military aggression, and to identify steps for their effective restoration and sustainable management.

Materials and Methods

To evaluate forest resources, we applied generally accepted theoretical and methodological approaches to the economic valuation of natural assets. The analysis was guided by the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES), which distinguishes three primary categories of ecosystem services: provisioning services, regulation and maintenance services, and cultural services. The valuation of material forest resources and estimation of war-related damage were based on data from the State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and relevant scientific publications.

Results

Ukraine’s current forest cover has been significantly altered by human activity – both quantitatively and qualitatively. The forestry sector contributes over 3% to the national gross domestic product, underlining the considerable ecological and economic importance of forests.

Nonetheless, the current level of forest cover remains suboptimal. Achieving the target of 20% forest cover will require the afforestation of at least 2–2.5 million hectares using site- and purpose-optimized approaches. This expansion must incorporate intensive technologies, particularly the use of container-grown seedlings and genetically improved planting stock. Realization of this goal necessitates a dedicated Forest Seed Development Program and sustained financial support.

Russian military aggression has caused substantial damage to Ukrainian forests, affecting nearly one-third of the total forest area. Approximately 450,000 hectares are contaminated with explosive remnants and require demining. Demining and recultivation of contaminated forest areas will take decades, restricting access to natural resources and recreational areas. There is also an urgent need for standardized methodologies to objectively assess forestry-related war damage. URIFFM has developed scientific recommendations that can aid in addressing these issues.

Post-war forest restoration will be a matter of national priority. A comprehensive program must be developed to rebuild the productive capacity of Ukrainian forestswhich would include, in particular, the creation of favorable conditions for meeting the needs of the industry in valuable wood. In the context of climate change, increasing the resilience of forest stands to adverse environmental factors is essential. This can be achieved through the implementation of scientifically grounded forest management strategies, many of which have been developed by URIFFM.

Conclusions

A strategic vision for the development of forestry in Ukraine must be formulated, accounting for evolving environmental conditions and socio-economic dynamics. This includes the broader application of ecologically oriented, close-to-nature forestry practices that support sustainable land use.

There is an urgent need for a new edition of the Forest Code of Ukraine and a comprehensive revision of the legislative framework governing forest use. This overhaul should integrate climate considerations, elevate the ecological role of forests, and align national forestry legislation with that of European countries. Future forestry research must also be oriented toward fulfilling Ukraine's international obligations and recognizing the increasing importance of forests in contemporary environmental and socio-economic contexts.

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